Author Topic: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020  (Read 1089 times)

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Offline cybercoma

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2020, 04:08:05 pm »
Trump lost bytes popular vote by MILLIONS.

Tell me again how progressive values are the minority

Offline MAGA Graham

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2020, 09:08:52 pm »
Trump lost bytes popular vote by MILLIONS.

Millions yes, but it was a 2% difference nationwide.  Gaining votes in progressive states like California or Maine also isn't going to mean anything, you need to win the swing states to win POTUS.

Quote
Tell me again how progressive values are the minority

Biden/Hillary brand of progressive is a lot more moderate than Bernie Sanders' brand of progressive.  You're saying Biden will alienate the more progressive wing of Dems, which is true, but i'm saying they also need to keep their eyes on the prize, and the people who win elections are the swing voters in the swing states, not the **** left or **** right.

You can either alienate young progressive democrats or alienate more moderate Americans who vote GOP or Dem depending who they like better.  I like Sanders better than Biden, I just have no idea how he'd do in the general.
Good medicine turns poisonous when the dose is too high.

Offline MAGA Graham

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2020, 09:22:08 pm »
Apparently you don't understand how gerrymandering does work, how it effects the EC which does elect the POTUS, and how much more often the GOP has used it. Heard of Trump have ya?

Explain how gerrymandering helped Trump win in 2016.
Good medicine turns poisonous when the dose is too high.

Offline Omni

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2020, 09:29:08 pm »
Explain how gerrymandering helped Trump win in 2016.

Easy enough.

The 2016 presidential contest was awash with charges that the fix was in: Republican Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that the election was rigged against him, while Democrats have accused the Russians of stacking the odds in Trumpís favor.

Less attention was paid to manipulation that occurred not during the presidential race, but before it ó in the drawing of lines for hundreds of U.S. and state legislative seats. The result, according to an Associated Press analysis: Republicans had a real advantage.

The AP scrutinized the outcomes of all 435 U.S. House races and about 4,700 state House and Assembly seats up for election last year using a new statistical method of calculating partisan advantage. Itís designed to detect cases in which one party may have won, widened or retained its grip on power through political gerrymandering.

https://www.denverpost.com/2017/06/25/gerrymandering-2016-election/

Offline SuperColinBlow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2020, 01:46:46 am »
Omni: there are only two states--Maine, with 4 electoral votes, and Nebraska, with 5--which allocate electors from congressional districts (that is they don't use winner-take-all). The gerrymandering of congressional districts affects the legislative branch--not the presidential election. Except in ME and NE, gerrymandering doesn't affect the election of electors.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 01:55:09 am by SuperColinBlow »
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Offline MH

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2020, 06:23:07 am »
Will the outbreak and corresponding depletion of Trump's key demographic provide an excuse to cancel the election?

You heard about it here first...

Offline MAGA Graham

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2020, 07:22:19 am »
Easy enough.

The 2016 presidential contest was awash with charges that the fix was in: Republican Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that the election was rigged against him, while Democrats have accused the Russians of stacking the odds in Trumpís favor.

Less attention was paid to manipulation that occurred not during the presidential race, but before it ó in the drawing of lines for hundreds of U.S. and state legislative seats. The result, according to an Associated Press analysis: Republicans had a real advantage.

The AP scrutinized the outcomes of all 435 U.S. House races and about 4,700 state House and Assembly seats up for election last year using a new statistical method of calculating partisan advantage. Itís designed to detect cases in which one party may have won, widened or retained its grip on power through political gerrymandering.

https://www.denverpost.com/2017/06/25/gerrymandering-2016-election/

This has nothing to do with the POTUS election, it has to do with House of Reps elections which are voted on at the same time as the POTUS voting.  Gerrymandering is about manipulating congressional districts.  Every state but Maine and Nebraska uses a "winner take all" system for the electoral college and doesn't use districts, so besides those 2 states there is nothing to gerrymander in the POTUS election unless you start redrawing state lines LOL.
Good medicine turns poisonous when the dose is too high.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2020, 07:44:43 am »
Millions yes, but it was a 2% difference nationwide.  Gaining votes in progressive states like California or Maine also isn't going to mean anything, you need to win the swing states to win POTUS
Dirt doesn't vote. People vote and states like California have A LOT of people. Even states like Texas have large progressive populations in the cities. The fact of the matter is the American population is absolutely progressive. There are millions more progressive voters in the US than conservatives. The only way the conservatives continue to win elections is by rigging the system. Bush beat Al Gore when Bush's own brother handed him the election in Florida. The only conservative who has actually won the popular vote for president in the last THREE DECADES was Bush in his second term. That's it. Yet they continue to hold office.

And this trash is happening all the way down the ballot. They literally bragged on tape about manipulating the electoral boundaries for congress seats. Conservatives cannot win a fair election in the United States anymore. And since they're not accountable to the electorate, their entire reason for being is to enrich themselves and their millionaire friends at the expense of the vast majority of people in that country.

And frankly, that people like you will make excuses for what amounts to an undemocratic criminal enterprise (the GOP) is sad AF.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2020, 07:46:35 am »
Will the outbreak and corresponding depletion of Trump's key demographic provide an excuse to cancel the election?

You heard about it here first...
The election won't be cancelled. I'm pretty confident that cancelling the election would finally result in violent protests.

Offline MH

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2020, 08:13:10 am »
The election won't be cancelled. I'm pretty confident that cancelling the election would finally result in violent protests.

"pretty confident"  ;)

Offline SuperColinBlow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #25 on: January 27, 2020, 08:14:36 am »
What do you mean "cancel the election"? This isn't Venezuela. You're flying a kite, buddy.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 08:18:16 am by SuperColinBlow »
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Offline MH

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #26 on: January 27, 2020, 08:35:40 am »
What do you mean "cancel the election"? This isn't Venezuela. You're flying a kite, buddy.

I have seen it postulated more than once, and in several different places, that Trump could use pretense of some emergency to stay on if he's trailing in the polls.  I don't think it's likely but think about it... a little...

Offline SuperColinBlow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #27 on: January 27, 2020, 08:48:38 am »
I have seen it postulated more than once, and in several different places, that Trump could use pretense of some emergency to stay on if he's trailing in the polls.  I don't think it's likely but think about it... a little...

I'm not normally this blunt, but dude, seriously: you need to calm down and stop seeing conspiracy theories everywhere. Care to mention where you have seen it "postulated"?
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Offline MH

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2020, 09:26:11 am »
I'm not normally this blunt, but dude, seriously: you need to calm down and stop seeing conspiracy theories everywhere. Care to mention where you have seen it "postulated"?

 :D Note my language, with which I am careful:

Trump *could* use...

I don't think it's likely...

I don't remember where I have seen it, but I would say it was serious posters on message boards I guess...
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Offline Omni

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #29 on: January 27, 2020, 12:20:59 pm »
I'm not normally this blunt, but dude, seriously: you need to calm down and stop seeing conspiracy theories everywhere. Care to mention where you have seen it "postulated"?

Dude, you don't need to look for postulation, Trump himself threatened to declare a national emergency over his friggin' wall BS.
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