Author Topic: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020  (Read 3409 times)

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Offline MH

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Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« on: January 22, 2020, 01:03:23 pm »
From me and Cyber to start:

Biden is conservative garbage. If he gets the nomination, Trump will win again. Mark my words.
Quote from: MH
Don't predict anything.  At your most forward say "I think this may happen..."

I think Biden may win... don't Mark My Words...  :D

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Offline SuperColinBlow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2020, 05:38:22 pm »
Remember Biden's "Cornpop" anecdote?   ;D

I wonder, if he got elected President, his Secret Service name would be Cornpop.
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Offline MH

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2020, 09:53:27 pm »
https://twitter.com/obrienjohnjack/status/1189731159850115073?lang=en

Quote
Q: have you ever had a gay experience

Booker: HAHA no who said that
Beto: hjs during straight porn
Pete: strict top no fats/fems
Bernie: I marched for the legalization of poppers
Warren: duh
Biden: In 1958 I had a friend named Cummy Pete
Kamala: I was the first cop at Stonewall

Cummy Pete...

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2020, 06:52:02 am »
Fine. I concede: "I think this may happen."

My reasoning: Biden is completely unpalatable to the re-ignited left and young voters. They see him as old and out of touch. They literally view him as a conservative politician. If Biden wins the nomination, it will take the wind out of the sails of progressive voters. It will extinguish their excitement for the next election and they'll be less likely to show up to the polls. Remember that Trump lost the popular vote by millions. Even the Republican senators are sitting in their seats with fewer votes than the Democratic senators, despite GOP control of the senate. Republicans in the US do not need majority vote to win. They've rigged the voting system and have been doing so for years. They don't care about fair election--they care ONLY about winning, even if it means destroying democracy with it. So it won't take much for them to win again. A Biden ticket for the presidency would be a gift to the Republicans.

Offline MH

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2020, 06:55:02 am »
The question is whether the youth will prevail now.  The opposition being the mushy middle and true Trump believers are still a factor.

Offline SuperColinBlow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2020, 01:58:42 pm »
The Pete "no fats/fems" thing: my roomies wondered exactly what I was laughing at so hard. Thank you!
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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2020, 02:35:00 pm »
Fine. I concede: "I think this may happen."

My reasoning: Biden is completely unpalatable to the re-ignited left and young voters. They see him as old and out of touch. They literally view him as a conservative politician. If Biden wins the nomination, it will take the wind out of the sails of progressive voters. It will extinguish their excitement for the next election and they'll be less likely to show up to the polls.

I think the progressive wing of the Democrats and young voters are not as important to US elections as we would think.  Much of the media is run by urban liberals, often younger, out of liberal urban big cities in Democrat-heavy states ie: LA and NYC.  Just look at the late night talk shows.  Twitter is also not a fair representation of how Americans think, it's dominated by younger people, my parents don't tweet.  Gary the mechanic and Flo the Walmart cashier don't tweet.

Meanwhile, people 18 to 29 made up only 13% of the US electorate last time:  https://www.people-press.org/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/

Non-college grads make up a healthy majority of US voters, 63% in 2016.  University students  are very vocal activists and support people like AOC and Bernie and dominate Youtube comment sections, while your average working stiff is busy raising kids.  Your average working stiff is who decides elections, which is why Biden has been leading in the Democrat polls.  Key swing states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa don't scream progressive Green New Deal supporter.

The Democrats need to capture the swing voters in swing states.  That means moderate voters.  If they nominate Biden, I think he might lose because ya he's old and seems semi-senile and has also never been a great candidate, even when he ran against Obama and Hillary in 2008.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline Omni

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2020, 03:17:27 pm »
The question is whether the youth will prevail now.  The opposition being the mushy middle and true Trump believers are still a factor.

It looks like not only the youth could prevail but also young immigrants who have become eligible to vote. Voter turnout has increased substantially among these groups and they tend to favor democrats, and especially not Trump.

"The nature of the population eligible to vote is evolving in a way that should indeed help Democrats. McDonald estimates that the number of eligible voters increases by about 5 million each year, or about 20 million from one presidential election to the next. That increase predominantly flows from two sources: young people who turn 18 and immigrants who become citizens. Since people of color are now approaching a majority of the under-18 population—and also constitute most immigrants—McDonald and other experts believe it’s likely that minorities represent a majority of the people who have become eligible to vote since 2016."


"These shifts have enormous implications because of the generational gulf in attitudes toward Trump and the parties more broadly. His approval rating has consistently lagged among the more racially diverse, socially tolerant younger generations. Though Trump and the GOP have shown some signs of weakness recently among seniors, he has generally polled much better among voters older than 50, in part because a much larger share of Americans in that cohort are white."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/2020-election-voter-turnout-could-be-record-breaking/591607/

Offline SuperColinBlow

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2020, 08:39:50 am »
Fine. I concede: "I think this may happen."

My reasoning: Biden is completely unpalatable to the re-ignited left and young voters. They see him as old and out of touch. They literally view him as a conservative politician. If Biden wins the nomination, it will take the wind out of the sails of progressive voters. It will extinguish their excitement for the next election and they'll be less likely to show up to the polls. Remember that Trump lost the popular vote by millions. Even the Republican senators are sitting in their seats with fewer votes than the Democratic senators, despite GOP control of the senate. Republicans in the US do not need majority vote to win. They've rigged the voting system and have been doing so for years. They don't care about fair election--they care ONLY about winning, even if it means destroying democracy with it. So it won't take much for them to win again. A Biden ticket for the presidency would be a gift to the Republicans.

How have the republicans "rigged" the voting system?
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Offline cybercoma

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2020, 02:06:09 pm »
Graham, 35 year olds are millennials. Let that sink in.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2020, 02:08:48 pm »
How have the republicans "rigged" the voting system?
From gerrymandering to obstructing Congress with regard to Russian interference and everything between (purging voter rolls, limiting polling hours, making it difficult to get ID but requiring it to vote, etc etc etc)

Offline Omni

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2020, 02:27:19 pm »
How have the republicans "rigged" the voting system?

The republicans have used gerrymandering much more often and effectively since Gerry created that "salamander" in Boston. There is ample evidence to show that's what helped Trump get into the WH.

"The 2016 presidential contest was awash with charges that the fix was in: Republican Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that the election was rigged
against him, while Democrats have accused the Russians of stacking the odds in Trump’s favor."

"Less attention was paid to manipulation that occurred not during the presidential race, but before it — in the drawing of lines for hundreds of U.S. and state legislative seats. The result, according to an Associated Press analysis: Republicans had a real advantage.

The AP scrutinized the outcomes of all 435 U.S. House races and about 4,700 state House and Assembly seats up for election last year using a new statistical method of calculating partisan advantage. It’s designed to detect cases in which one party may have won, widened or retained its grip on power through political gerrymandering.

The analysis found four times as many states with Republican-skewed state House or Assembly districts than Democratic ones. Among the two dozen most populated states that determine the vast majority of Congress, there were nearly three times as many with Republican-tilted U.S. House districts."

https://www.businessinsider.com/partisan-gerrymandering-has-benefited-republicans-more-than-democrats-2017-6

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2020, 03:12:02 pm »
Graham, 35 year olds are millennials. Let that sink in.

My point is that the progressive wing, while it has popularity, is not as mainstream as it seems.  Moderate liberals aren't as represented anymore in the media, and yet they nominated Hillary over Bernie and support Biden over Bernie/Warren.

The general US populace is much more to the center and right than the media would have us believe.  If you watch the US media and all the US talk-shows etc you'd get the impression that most people are progressive liberals, but they aren't.  46% of American voters voted for Trump, compared to 48% for Hillary, while Sanders wasn't even on the ballot.

The Democrats need to think about what will appeal to the general electorate and especially swing voters, not LA and NYC.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2020, 03:16:48 pm »
From gerrymandering to obstructing Congress with regard to Russian interference and everything between (purging voter rolls, limiting polling hours, making it difficult to get ID but requiring it to vote, etc etc etc)

Gerrymandering doesn't affect the POTUS election, only House of Representatives voting.  For POTUS, most states go by popular vote of the entire state with a winner-take-all of electoral college votes.  Senate seats are also obviously winner-take-all.

The other stuff I agree with.
"The economy has been relatively strong but Trudeau has chosen to run deficits year after year & has said will continue to do so well into the future.  This means we'll be in a worse & more vulnerable financial position when a recession hits when we HAVE to run deficits again." - Me, Oct. 3, 2019

Offline Omni

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Re: Presidential Non-Predictions 2020
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2020, 03:41:33 pm »
Gerrymandering doesn't affect the POTUS election, only House of Representatives voting.  For POTUS, most states go by popular vote of the entire state with a winner-take-all of electoral college votes.  Senate seats are also obviously winner-take-all.

The other stuff I agree with.

Apparently you don't understand how gerrymandering does work, how it effects the EC which does elect the POTUS, and how much more often the GOP has used it. Heard of Trump have ya?
« Last Edit: January 25, 2020, 04:31:44 pm by Omni »