Author Topic: The Joe Biden Thread  (Read 6674 times)

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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #750 on: March 08, 2021, 11:26:14 am »
Keep in mind that the whole "minimum wage" thing is a little more complex than some people make it out to be.

Yes, it certainly sounds good... "Give people a living wage", but the Congressional Budget Office (a non-partisan part of the government) has pointed out that a large increase in the minimum wage might help many low income workers, but it would also potentially cause thousands of others to lose their jobs.

Exactly.  Do-gooders who don't even read one economics paper on the subject think by simply raising the minimum wage substantially there won't be other effects on the economy or on people making minimum wage.  As if things happen in a bubble.  It's like when conservatives invaded Iraq to remove Saddam and didn't understand the power vacuum it would cause.

It would be very nice if people making minimum wage could simply get a raise to $15 but economics isn't that simple.  More jobs will be shifted overseas, more jobs will be automated etc.
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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #751 on: March 08, 2021, 11:29:16 am »
great political minds at work here.

$1,400 checks in COVID-19 relief bill would phase out at $80,000 instead of $100,000


You know what voters love? Not getting money they were promised.

And these are the kind of ratfuckers who are actually running things:

Dems would rather get wiped out in 2022 than help one person who might not need it. True masterminds of losing.

So you want Biden/Dems to buy off voters by giving people money who don't need it as US gov drowns in debt?
I can tell how good of a person you are by how you treat the people you disagree with.
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Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #752 on: March 08, 2021, 11:33:12 am »
Sigh... you really seem to have a hate-on for the Biden administration and "non-progressive" democrats, don't you.

First of all, lets see:

The average income in the U.S. in 2019 was ~$31k. The cutoff is being lowered from $100k to $80k. Which means that the people who are getting cut off have more than twice the national income. Seems to me that if you want to target a social program to those in need, giving the money to people who probably don't need it is probably a waste of time.

Now, will it cost the democrats votes? Yes, people do like receiving money. But:

Biden not following the longtime Canadian tradition of buying off voters will their own money.  "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country" is a dead meme in Canada.
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Offline Black Dog

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #753 on: March 08, 2021, 01:18:09 pm »
Keep in mind that the whole "minimum wage" thing is a little more complex than some people make it out to be.

Yes, it certainly sounds good... "Give people a living wage", but the Congressional Budget Office (a non-partisan part of the government) has pointed out that a large increase in the minimum wage might help many low income workers, but it would also potentially cause thousands of others to lose their jobs.

From: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/raising-minimum-wage-to-15-would-cost-1point4-million-jobs-cbo-says.html
Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour...would cost 1.4 million jobs over the next four years while lifting 900,000 people out of poverty, according to a Congressional Budget Office report Monday....a nonpartisan agency that provides budgetary analysis to Congress.

If you are a congress-critter from some state with a relatively low cost of living, you might look at the trade-off between wage-increases and unemployment as something that results in more harm than benefit.


Counterpoint: No, a $15 minimum wage won’t cost 1.4 million jobs
 


Study after study has shown the correlation between increased minimum wage and lost jobs is very weak at best.

Offline Black Dog

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #754 on: March 08, 2021, 01:18:55 pm »
Exactly.  Do-gooders who don't even read one economics paper on the subject think by simply raising the minimum wage substantially there won't be other effects on the economy or on people making minimum wage.  As if things happen in a bubble.  It's like when conservatives invaded Iraq to remove Saddam and didn't understand the power vacuum it would cause.

It would be very nice if people making minimum wage could simply get a raise to $15 but economics isn't that simple.  More jobs will be shifted overseas, more jobs will be automated etc.

lol you mean the same thing that's happening now with a $7.25 minimum wage?

Offline Black Dog

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #755 on: March 08, 2021, 01:25:58 pm »
So you want Biden/Dems to buy off voters by giving people money who don't need it as US gov drowns in debt?

If the purpose of the cheques is to stimulate the economy, menaing you want people to spend that cash, you'd want to target it as broadly as possible. For those people on the upper end you can just claw it back in taxes later.

If the purpose is to help those most in need, then a one-time $1,400 cheque isn't going to make a big difference in the long run.

Offline segnosaur

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #756 on: March 08, 2021, 01:42:33 pm »
Quote
Keep in mind that the whole "minimum wage" thing is a little more complex than some people make it out to be.

Yes, it certainly sounds good... "Give people a living wage", but the Congressional Budget Office (a non-partisan part of the government) has pointed out that a large increase in the minimum wage might help many low income workers, but it would also potentially cause thousands of others to lose their jobs.

Counterpoint: No, a $15 minimum wage won’t cost 1.4 million jobs
 
Counter counterpoint:

From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/04/17/the-record-is-clear-minimum-wage-hikes-destroy-jobs/?sh=67b2ae7d69c1
In a comprehensive, 182-page summary of the research on this subject from the last two decades, economists David Neumark (UC-Irvine) and William Wascher (Federal Reserve Board) determined that 85 percent of the best research points to a loss of jobs following a minimum wage increase.
...
Twenty-eight states raised minimum wages in the four years prior to passage of the last federal minimum wage increase. Economists from Cornell and American Universities...found no associated reduction in poverty rates.


Here's what I think the problem is...

A small minimum wage increase will have no impact on employment. A large minimum wage increase will. Most minimum wage increases have been small... so you will get studies that show "increasing minimum wages doesn't impact employment". And progressives can of course point to those studies and say "see? No impact". When minimum wage increases are larger, they DO have a bigger impact on employment. But since such big increases are rare, you don't always have the same evidence. 
« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 01:47:38 pm by segnosaur »

Offline Gorgeous Graham

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #757 on: March 08, 2021, 02:00:57 pm »
If the purpose of the cheques is to stimulate the economy, menaing you want people to spend that cash, you'd want to target it as broadly as possible. For those people on the upper end you can just claw it back in taxes later.

If the purpose is to help those most in need, then a one-time $1,400 cheque isn't going to make a big difference in the long run.

I guess it depends on the purpose of the cheques.  You could give it to people making 100k i guess.  I think i'd rather give it to middle class and poor people, they'll definitely spent it plus they need it more.  80k vs 100k doesn't sound like a big difference, those people won't go homeless either way.

I would think there's lots of people out there who need the money, maybe the focus should be on need.  $1400 would be a big help to a lot of people living paycheck to paycheck or out of work.
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Offline segnosaur

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #758 on: March 08, 2021, 02:14:02 pm »
Quote
Exactly.  Do-gooders who don't even read one economics paper on the subject think by simply raising the minimum wage substantially there won't be other effects on the economy or on people making minimum wage.  As if things happen in a bubble.  It's like when conservatives invaded Iraq to remove Saddam and didn't understand the power vacuum it would cause.

It would be very nice if people making minimum wage could simply get a raise to $15 but economics isn't that simple.  More jobs will be shifted overseas, more jobs will be automated etc.
lol you mean the same thing that's happening now with a $7.25 minimum wage?
Actually, while the federal minimum wage in the U.S. might be $7.25, the fact is that many states/regions have higher minimum wages... New York State had an $11.80 minimum wage, while California's was $13. The presence of higher minimum wages in at least some of the larger populated states would be enough to drive companies to automation.

An anecdote (for what its worth)...

I used to be friends with a person who managed a McDonald's. (This was before the automated touch screens.) Part of her job was scheduling employees. While they didn't have a direct "minimum wage increased, cut X employees" rule, what they did do is had a rule that "labor may only be a certain percentage of total expenses". When minimum wages went up, they didn't automate (since that wasn't an option then), but what she did do was tighten the schedule... where they may have 1 or 2 extra employees scheduled over a dinner rush (just in case it was busier than expected), they instead scheduled the bare minimum, in line with the guidelines for labor expenses. So, overall employees were getting less hours.

Offline segnosaur

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #759 on: March 08, 2021, 02:26:14 pm »
If the purpose of the cheques is to stimulate the economy, menaing you want people to spend that cash, you'd want to target it as broadly as possible.
Money is not in infinite resource. As such, decisions have to be made.

Individuals who are earning more than twice the average are less likely to spend any unexpected cash... instead, they are more likely to save/invest it. While that might provide a small benefit, it is less optimal that either increasing payments to the less wealthy, or investing in infrastructure. (And the Covid relief bill did transfer funds to other levels of government to help with infrastructure.)

Quote
If the purpose is to help those most in need, then a one-time $1,400 cheque isn't going to make a big difference in the long run.
There are a lot of people who are experiencing temporary shortfalls directly related to Covid... (loss of employment hours, unexpected expenses).. often problems that will go away in a few months once things start to get back to normal.

For those people, a $1400 check will make a difference.
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Offline Black Dog

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #760 on: March 08, 2021, 04:21:58 pm »
Money is not in infinite resource. As such, decisions have to be made.

Actually it is.

And it's funny how it's always "we need to make tough decisions" when it comes to dividing a pie meant to help people, but foreign wars get a blank cheque.

Quote
Individuals who are earning more than twice the average are less likely to spend any unexpected cash... instead, they are more likely to save/invest it. While that might provide a small benefit, it is less optimal that either increasing payments to the less wealthy, or investing in infrastructure. (And the Covid relief bill did transfer funds to other levels of government to help with infrastructure.)

The point is giving up to 12 million people less money than they got under trump (money that you can get back from them come tax time anyway) because of some aversion to not means testing everything to death is not smart politics.

Offline Black Dog

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Re: The Joe Biden Thread
« Reply #761 on: March 08, 2021, 04:57:03 pm »
Counterpoint: No, a $15 minimum wage won’t cost 1.4 million jobs
 

Counter counterpoint:

From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/04/17/the-record-is-clear-minimum-wage-hikes-destroy-jobs/?sh=67b2ae7d69c1
In a comprehensive, 182-page summary of the research on this subject from the last two decades, economists David Neumark (UC-Irvine) and William Wascher (Federal Reserve Board) determined that 85 percent of the best research points to a loss of jobs following a minimum wage increase.
...
Twenty-eight states raised minimum wages in the four years prior to passage of the last federal minimum wage increase. Economists from Cornell and American Universities...found no associated reduction in poverty rates.


Here's what I think the problem is...

A small minimum wage increase will have no impact on employment. A large minimum wage increase will. Most minimum wage increases have been small... so you will get studies that show "increasing minimum wages doesn't impact employment". And progressives can of course point to those studies and say "see? No impact". When minimum wage increases are larger, they DO have a bigger impact on employment. But since such big increases are rare, you don't always have the same evidence.

Just leaving this here: https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Employment_Policies_Institute