Author Topic: Incomes Collapsing in the US  (Read 1000 times)

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Offline MH

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Re: Incomes Collapsing in the US
« Reply #105 on: May 03, 2019, 07:20:06 am »
Ah ... Incomes are finally coming up.  The NYT claims to have discovered why.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/business/economy/wage-growth-economy.html

Offline MH

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Re: Incomes Collapsing in the US
« Reply #106 on: May 03, 2019, 08:51:57 pm »
TLDR; it's about those who weren't counted as unemployed finally finding work and there being an actual shortage of labour now.

Fill your boots, folks.  If you make $20/hr or $40K a year, you are now getting $400/year or roughtly $8/week extra above inflation but before taxes.


Offline TimG

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Re: Incomes Collapsing in the US
« Reply #107 on: May 03, 2019, 09:13:37 pm »
The labour force participation rate has been a concern since it started to drop off since 2008:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

Back when Obama was around right wingers were using to it to dis Obama's record (yes including me ;-).
It is interesting how the number has stayed at historical lows through out Trumps tenure.
I would have expected it to pick up.

I think it is a good argument to say that the real unemployment rate is:
 the official rate + the labour force participation rate differential.


Offline MH

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Re: Incomes Collapsing in the US
« Reply #108 on: May 04, 2019, 06:28:41 am »
I double believe it is as bad as this graph says.  The fluctuations ar also only within a one percent band

Offline TimG

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Re: Incomes Collapsing in the US
« Reply #109 on: May 04, 2019, 07:11:59 am »
I double believe it is as bad as this graph says.  The fluctuations ar also only within a one percent band
Not sure you are reading the graph right. You need to change the time scale to 10+ years to see my point. If the participation rate was the same as it was for the 30 years from 1980-2010 then the unemployment rate today would be doubled. That makes the participation rate an extremely significant factor that is generally ignored.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2019, 08:05:57 am by TimG »

Offline MH

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Re: Incomes Collapsing in the US
« Reply #110 on: May 04, 2019, 08:58:46 am »
Sorry I meant to say that I DON'T believe it.  How could it still be so low?

Offline TimG

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Re: Incomes Collapsing in the US
« Reply #111 on: May 04, 2019, 10:52:33 am »
Sorry I meant to say that I DON'T believe it.  How could it still be so low?
The data is from the US dept of statistics. I don't see any reason to question it. It is no less reliable than the unemployment numbers themselves.

As for the reason: the best theory I have heard is unskilled people losing their job late in life retire early and make do with government support programs and possibly a spouse that is still working.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2019, 11:06:14 am by TimG »