Author Topic: Electoral College Predictions !  (Read 2345 times)

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Offline Montgomery

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #135 on: November 05, 2020, 12:15:12 pm »
https://www.rt.com/usa/505355-presidential-election-live-updates/

Nothing out of the ordinary but a mocking tone from them today. Satisfying at least and some crazy tweets from Trump and a few others. Russia will be non-biased until something is settled and then they'll go with the winner.
It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said. ~M.T.

Online wilber

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #136 on: November 05, 2020, 12:42:15 pm »
I get a kick out of some of Marina Hyde's columns. She has a way with words.

This is from yesterday.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/ok-america-so-what-the-hell-happens-now
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC
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Offline Omni

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #137 on: November 05, 2020, 12:57:06 pm »
What's been happening for the last 12 hours; there's no change in the numbers. This looks like they're holding the results because they know that their country is about to erupt into some very serious violence.

Actually the numbers have been changing in certain states, and of course the numbers of mail in ballots to be counted will certainly slow the process.

Offline Montgomery

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #138 on: November 05, 2020, 02:05:07 pm »
Actually the numbers have been changing in certain states, and of course the numbers of mail in ballots to be counted will certainly slow the process.

Very little change and none really meaningful. And the EC hasn't changed.
In the real world the counts were all 80-90% done on election day.
Now the remaining 10-20% aren't done two days later?

Any particular reason that can hold true for all those states?
It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said. ~M.T.

Online wilber

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #139 on: November 05, 2020, 02:15:56 pm »
Very little change and none really meaningful. And the EC hasn't changed.
In the real world the counts were all 80-90% done on election day.
Now the remaining 10-20% aren't done two days later?

Any particular reason that can hold true for all those states?

Pennsylvania is allowing three days for votes postmarked by election day to be counted.
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC

Offline Omni

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #140 on: November 05, 2020, 02:26:53 pm »
Very little change and none really meaningful. And the EC hasn't changed.
In the real world the counts were all 80-90% done on election day.
Now the remaining 10-20% aren't done two days later?

Any particular reason that can hold true for all those states?

The fact that trump's numbers in Georgia continue to slide and the uncounted ballots re from jurisdictions that tend to be Dem. is quite meaningful. If trump were to lose Georgia it's all but over.

Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #141 on: November 12, 2020, 07:14:07 pm »
Looks like I'm going to end up closest...
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Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #142 on: November 12, 2020, 10:40:04 pm »
Looks like I'm going to end up closest...

You're in the closet?  Huh?
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #143 on: November 18, 2020, 02:50:05 pm »
BTW Fivethirtyeight posted the final model talk episode of the podcast.  Having listened, I feel that I now understand Silver's model, what it really is. I echo what he says about the importance of DISCUSSING polls but at the same time the 538 model is his own product and is not a rigorous or scientifically sound thing. 

( Polling science is real and mathematically proven, but not HIS poll of polls. )

When he says 'Biden to win with 90% chance' it is indeed a very well crafted and educated GUESS.  Unlike a real poll.

Offline Montgomery

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #144 on: November 18, 2020, 02:54:46 pm »
BTW Fivethirtyeight posted the final model talk episode of the podcast.  Having listened, I feel that I now understand Silver's model, what it really is. I echo what he says about the importance of DISCUSSING polls but at the same time the 538 model is his own product and is not a rigorous or scientifically sound thing. 

( Polling science is real and mathematically proven, but not HIS poll of polls. )

When he says 'Biden to win with 90% chance' it is indeed a very well crafted and educated GUESS.  Unlike a real poll.

I would see it as just offering the 10% remaining as hope for the Trump extremists.
It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said. ~M.T.

Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #145 on: November 18, 2020, 03:02:26 pm »
I predict the results will be indefinitely disputed and we will never agree on the true winner.

Graham still looking good!
"Nipples is one of the great minds of our time!" - Bubbermiley

Online wilber

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #146 on: November 18, 2020, 03:10:13 pm »
Graham still looking good!

Actually, Graham may find himself in deep doo doo for election interference. ;D
"Never trust a man without a single redeeming vice" WSC
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Offline Black Dog

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #147 on: November 18, 2020, 03:30:42 pm »
Graham still looking good!

Let's parse taht prediction:

Quote
I predict the results will be indefinitely disputed

Given Trump/the GOP basically announced that they would not accept any election result that led to their defeat as legitimate and that performative outrage is essentially the entire conservative ethos these days, this was never a question.

Quote
and we will never agree on the true winner.

"True winner" implies some kind of doubt over the actual results. There is none. That some dead-enders refuse to accept the result doesn't change the result itself. Biden won and won handily.
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #148 on: November 18, 2020, 03:36:10 pm »

Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #149 on: November 19, 2020, 10:48:51 am »
"True winner" implies some kind of doubt over the actual results. There is none. That some dead-enders refuse to accept the result doesn't change the result itself. Biden won and won handily.

True enough, but when I said "we will never agree" I mean people like Shady too.  ;)
"Nipples is one of the great minds of our time!" - Bubbermiley