Author Topic: Electoral College Predictions !  (Read 2350 times)

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Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #75 on: November 02, 2020, 10:26:59 pm »
We're probably in for a pretty boring next 36 hours or so, while the clean their guns, sort out their different ammunition, and dig up their large capacity magazines from the potato gardens.

It's worth the wait.

Let the record show... I did not mean to like this post.  It was an accident.
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Offline JMT

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #76 on: November 02, 2020, 10:51:51 pm »
How’s that different from their 2016 predictions?

If anything, Nate is being overcautious this time because of 2016. Leantossup has Biden with a blowout, winning Texas, Ohio, and Iowa.
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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #77 on: November 03, 2020, 07:23:26 am »
How’s that different from their 2016 predictions?

Adding to BC Cheque - there were errors in the polling methods in 2016 which presumably have been corrected.  Also the undecideds selected Trump over Clinton at a large margin with no evidence of that in the cards for this election.

Offline kimmy

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #78 on: November 03, 2020, 10:08:51 am »
I suspect that there's some truth to the theory of "the shy Republican voter".  I think that some portion of poll respondents don't tell the truth because they feel uncomfortable telling anyone that they plan to vote for Trump, so I think that this race is probably a little closer than the polls suggest.  And there's also the question of "intend to vote" vs "actually voted."  The "voter enthusiasm gap" was one reason Clinton didn't win .  This time I think that Democrat voters have been sufficiently riled up by Trump antics to somewhat close that deficit.

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Offline Michael Hardner

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #79 on: November 03, 2020, 11:48:33 am »
I suspect that there's some truth to the theory of "the shy Republican voter".  I think that some portion of poll respondents don't tell the truth because they feel uncomfortable telling anyone that they plan to vote for Trump, so I think that this race is probably a little closer than the polls suggest.   

I immersed myself in this question for awhile so I feel compelled to share what I learned.

There was NO 'shy Trump vote' factor in 2016 and there's no evidence of it now.  People poll via various methods including online, as well as phone.  It's hard to believe people would be 'embarrassed' to clicking a box online and yet online and phone polls line up so embarassment doesn't seem to figure into it.

Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #80 on: November 03, 2020, 12:36:45 pm »
I immersed myself in this question for awhile so I feel compelled to share what I learned.

There was NO 'shy Trump vote' factor in 2016 and there's no evidence of it now.  People poll via various methods including online, as well as phone.  It's hard to believe people would be 'embarrassed' to clicking a box online and yet online and phone polls line up so embarassment doesn't seem to figure into it.

Agreed.  People have a difficult time with statistical models and wrapping their heads around the fact that the models gave Trump a non-insignificant chance of winning in 2016, and that was what ended up happening. 

“Likely outcome” does not mean “definite outcome”.  Polling and the models predicting the outcomes are far from perfect, and don’t claim to be.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 12:49:16 pm by the_squid »

Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #81 on: November 03, 2020, 12:46:49 pm »
I suspect that there's some truth to the theory of "the shy Republican voter".  I think that some portion of poll respondents don't tell the truth because they feel uncomfortable telling anyone that they plan to vote for Trump, so I think that this race is probably a little closer than the polls suggest.  And there's also the question of "intend to vote" vs "actually voted."  The "voter enthusiasm gap" was one reason Clinton didn't win .  This time I think that Democrat voters have been sufficiently riled up by Trump antics to somewhat close that deficit.

 -k

Hard to know what happened.  Many undecided people may have got into the booth thinking of voting clinton and then said "ahh screw it" and voted Trump.  Trump was a brick people could throw at the status quo.  Or it could have been a turnout issue, you can poll people but it doesn't mean they'll show up to vote.  I haven't really looked into the whole thing.
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Offline Queefer Sutherland

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #82 on: November 03, 2020, 12:49:09 pm »
I immersed myself in this question for awhile so I feel compelled to share what I learned.

There was NO 'shy Trump vote' factor in 2016 and there's no evidence of it now.  People poll via various methods including online, as well as phone.  It's hard to believe people would be 'embarrassed' to clicking a box online and yet online and phone polls line up so embarassment doesn't seem to figure into it.

I've heard also that the "shy Trump vote" also wasn't really a factor.  Although how they know this and are able to venture inside people's mind, who knows.
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Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #83 on: November 03, 2020, 01:20:05 pm »
I immersed myself in this question for awhile so I feel compelled to share what I learned.

There was NO 'shy Trump vote' factor in 2016 and there's no evidence of it now.  People poll via various methods including online, as well as phone.  It's hard to believe people would be 'embarrassed' to clicking a box online and yet online and phone polls line up so embarassment doesn't seem to figure into it.

Nate Silver said a lot of where 2016 went wrong was 1) the 'uneducated' voter which ended up voting more for Trump (and was taken into account for 2020) and 2) the undecided voter which swung for Trump, but 2020 goes into polling day with much less undecideds. 

Offline eyeball

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #84 on: November 03, 2020, 01:21:03 pm »
I've heard also that the "shy Trump vote" also wasn't really a factor.  Although how they know this and are able to venture inside people's mind, who knows.
There is a precedent for the Shy American, recall those who would sew Canadian flags on their backpacks when traveling abroad.

Offline Montgomery

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #85 on: November 03, 2020, 01:42:20 pm »
Americans don't deserve to have anything better than Trump.
Who cares if he's no worse for the rest of the world on US foreign policy? He's no more likely to start more wars than any other American would.

And his potential to cause harm to that county with his domestic policy is a plus for Trump and the rest of the world.

It's going to be a very entertaining night for me, regardless of the winner. The reason for that is because they will all be bigger losers when it's all over.

Don't buy the cheap champagne, this is a time for the best!
It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said. ~M.T.
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Offline waldo

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #86 on: November 03, 2020, 04:18:00 pm »
summary survey says - Biden across the board!


Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #87 on: November 03, 2020, 05:31:26 pm »
Polls close at 7 EST for Florida and Trump doesn't have much of a path forward without Florida.

It might be an early evening.
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Offline Squidward von Squidderson

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #88 on: November 03, 2020, 05:45:44 pm »
Polls close at 7 EST for Florida and Trump doesn't have much of a path forward without Florida.

It might be an early evening.

I’m sticking around for the cheating and the violence. 

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Offline BC_cheque

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Re: Electoral College Predictions !
« Reply #89 on: November 03, 2020, 05:52:28 pm »
What are your drinking tonight, Squid?