Author Topic: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell  (Read 74 times)

Offline cybercoma

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Offline SirJohn

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2017, 04:33:13 pm »
Very interesting. How come whenever this comes up on other discussion sites so many people blame the Americans? It doesn't look like they've done much of anything up until Trump fired off his tomahawks. According to this presentation Assad himself released jihadists in order to create a jihadist rebellion, and the big escalation was from Iran, sending over troops and weapons which inspired the Saudis and others to do the same.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2017, 05:18:18 pm »
The Americans were supporting the rebellion. It's a proxy war that has two sides. It's wrong to say it's all the Americans' fault, but it's just as wrong to downplay their influence there too.

Offline cybercoma

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2017, 05:24:04 pm »
Here's the conundrum as I see it.

Defeat Assad and ISIS fills the vacuum.

Do nothing and Assad butchers innocent people.

The one line that I think should never be crossed is chemical weapons. My opinion is that requires a swift and harsh response at all times. Having said that however, I don't think Trump has really done anything to address the chemical weapons. He informed Russia, who's allied with Assad, about the attack well ahead of time. What exactly did they do to incapacitate Assad? Nothing.

But hey, at least Donnie can pretend Putin doesn't have him on a leash. Right?

"Look how mad Putin is at me, guys! I'm not his lackey!"

Offline Omni

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2017, 06:09:32 pm »
Here's the conundrum as I see it.

Defeat Assad and ISIS fills the vacuum.

Do nothing and Assad butchers innocent people.

The one line that I think should never be crossed is chemical weapons. My opinion is that requires a swift and harsh response at all times. Having said that however, I don't think Trump has really done anything to address the chemical weapons. He informed Russia, who's allied with Assad, about the attack well ahead of time. What exactly did they do to incapacitate Assad? Nothing.

But hey, at least Donnie can pretend Putin doesn't have him on a leash. Right?

"Look how mad Putin is at me, guys! I'm not his lackey!"

Agreed, it is an extremely complicated cunundrum and I wouldn't doubt ISIS is applauding Trump's reaction although I can't fault him for trying to do something after seeing those images of especially the children burned or killed by Sarin. However I see to day that Russian aircraft, probably flown by Syrians are using the same runways today to launch further attacks on the same city they did the nerve gas drop. We'll see what the US does next, you know after Trump finishes his golf game, but I think if he's serious at all he ought to go to congress for the next move. But you could be right, it may have just been an attempt to distance himself from the Putin connection the news has been continuously discussing. I'm sure we've all seen some of the interviews with Syrians who feel hopeful that maybe someone is finally coming to help them out. Fingers crossed those hopes aren't dashed yet again. I'm not confident though.

Offline SirJohn

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2017, 06:48:26 pm »
The Americans were supporting the rebellion. It's a proxy war that has two sides. It's wrong to say it's all the Americans' fault, but it's just as wrong to downplay their influence there too.

Well, according to that they're not doing a hell of a lot. They tried to get arms and training to the rebels but most of the rebels are too hostile for that, so all they've really done is bomb some ISIS areas and try to cultivate the Kurds, who the Turks and Iraqis and Syrians all hate about as much as ISIS does. The proxy war seems to mostly be between Iran and the Suunis, not the US and Russia. Though there's no question Russia has provided WAAYY more help to Syria than the US has to anyone else.

Offline SirJohn

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2017, 06:53:48 pm »
Agreed, it is an extremely complicated cunundrum and I wouldn't doubt ISIS is applauding Trump's reaction although I can't fault him for trying to do something after seeing those images of especially the children burned or killed by Sarin. However I see to day that Russian aircraft, probably flown by Syrians are using the same runways today to launch further attacks on the same city they did the nerve gas drop. We'll see what the US does next, you know after Trump finishes his golf game, but I think if he's serious at all he ought to go to congress for the next move. But you could be right, it may have just been an attempt to distance himself from the Putin connection the news has been continuously discussing. I'm sure we've all seen some of the interviews with Syrians who feel hopeful that maybe someone is finally coming to help them out. Fingers crossed those hopes aren't dashed yet again. I'm not confident though.

The Americans were clear that they did not make any attempt to destroy the base or to hit the poison gas supplies. It was a message. And that is "Don't do that again". I'm sure the Syrians and Russians have taken the message to heart.

Offline wilber

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2017, 07:57:01 pm »
I don't think the Tomahawk is able to carry a weapon capable of taking out a concrete runway. They would need fixed wing aircraft carrying specialized bombs to do that. Maybe no stealthy machines available and didn't want to risk losing an aircraft and its crew captured.

Offline jmt18325

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2017, 08:19:10 pm »
I don't think the Tomahawk is able to carry a weapon capable of taking out a concrete runway. They would need fixed wing aircraft carrying specialized bombs to do that. Maybe no stealthy machines available and didn't want to risk losing an aircraft and its crew captured.

I don't think it's that.  I think it was more of a case of this being the least that they could do still doing something, while at the same time being the most they could do without drawing much criticism.

Offline wilber

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2017, 10:14:22 pm »
You may be right but why not? In for a penny, in for a pound. Runways for large aircraft are reinforced concrete and can be 18 inches thick. If you check out runway penetration bombs, they are specialized kit that has to be delivered in a certain way. I don't think the Tomahawk fits the bill.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2017, 10:19:37 pm by wilber »

Offline ?Impact

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2017, 02:57:31 pm »
I don't think the Tomahawk is able to carry a weapon capable of taking out a concrete runway. They would need fixed wing aircraft carrying specialized bombs to do that. Maybe no stealthy machines available and didn't want to risk losing an aircraft and its crew captured.
It shouldn't be a matter of weight, the French Matra Durandal weighs less than the payload of a Tomahawk cruise missile.

Offline Omni

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2017, 03:25:52 pm »
Why waste ~$million Tomohawk on a runway that can be easily and quickly fixed. Better off taking out Migs.

Offline wilber

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2017, 08:29:10 pm »
It shouldn't be a matter of weight, the French Matra Durandal weighs less than the payload of a Tomahawk cruise missile.

The Durandal is dropped by parachute and then uses its own rocket motor to punch into the runway. I don't know that the Tomahawk is capable of putting it in that position or if it has been used any other way than releasing it from an aircraft.

Offline Moonlight Graham

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2017, 09:42:48 pm »
The Americans were clear that they did not make any attempt to destroy the base or to hit the poison gas supplies. It was a message. And that is "Don't do that again". I'm sure the Syrians and Russians have taken the message to heart.

I agree.
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.

Offline Omni

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Re: The Syrian Conflict in a Nutshell
« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2017, 10:01:08 pm »
The Americans were clear that they did not make any attempt to destroy the base or to hit the poison gas supplies. It was a message. And that is "Don't do that again". I'm sure the Syrians and Russians have taken the message to heart.

I suspect the Syrians and Russians will disregard the message, since they know the US etal are afraid of what happens if they take out Assad. Very complex situation.