Author Topic: BC provincial election  (Read 458 times)

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #30 on: May 27, 2017, 11:04:12 am »
I would be very surprised if the NDP and Greens form a coalition.  I still think Greens are more likely to prop up the Liberals because they've always been Team Liberal.  This time around was no different.  Weaver is a fraud.

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/04/25/Green-Party-Contradictions/

Offline msj

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #31 on: May 29, 2017, 03:15:35 pm »
Again, I do not see what the big deal is here.

There are many little "Robert's Rules of Order" type reasons why the GP has to try to make a go with the LP's.

With 43 LP and 3 GP you can still have a speaker from either party and still carry off a vote (44 votes is needed and they would have 45 to the NDP's 41). 

If you read Kevin Milligan on twitter then there are also rules around committee votes. 

For the NDP/GP to form government, presumably with an NDP speaker, then they are not a stable government since they have 43 votes to the LP's 43.

That is, the NDP/GP would not be able to get anything passed through.

I expect that Weaver knows this stuff (or has people that knows this stuff) whereas the rest of us don't unless we are fortunate enough to come across this mundane stuff on Twitter.

In the end it is practical things like this that will force either a GP/LP government or an election.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 03:42:31 pm by msj »
I've gotta have more cow bell! -Bruce Dickinson

Offline jmt18325

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #32 on: May 29, 2017, 03:19:13 pm »
The NDP and Greens are going to make an announcement very soon.

Offline msj

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #33 on: May 29, 2017, 03:23:10 pm »
Yep, will be interesting to see what they are planning.

Maybe I am wrong and they are unaware of these little rules.

In which case, there will be an election at a time of the LP's choosing. 

Unless a LP member has agreed to cross the floor to the GP - now that would be interesting.
I've gotta have more cow bell! -Bruce Dickinson

Offline msj

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #34 on: May 29, 2017, 04:13:01 pm »
Dammit, no crossing of the floor.

I am looking forward to all the action in the coming weeks/months. 

Will be interesting to see how this PR experiment in a FPTP system will pan out.
I've gotta have more cow bell! -Bruce Dickinson

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #35 on: May 29, 2017, 04:31:17 pm »
The NDP and Greens are going to make an announcement very soon.

You mean this?

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/b-c-greens-back-ndp-for-minority-government-1.3434467


My prediction was wrong, Greens would back the NDP and it's now down to NDP to vote yes or no for the coalition.  I'm very surprised by this.

On a personal note if this goes through I can laugh at my husband for supporting the party that made for an NDP government in spite of his irrational hatred for them.  LOL
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 04:32:56 pm by BC_cheque »

Offline msj

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #36 on: May 29, 2017, 06:34:39 pm »

On a personal note if this goes through I can laugh at my husband for supporting the party that made for an NDP government in spite of his irrational hatred for them.  LOL

Yes, he is a good man who may have been foiled by a cunning Clark???

I wonder if this is Clark's preference. Why not?

Everyone is going on about how the NDP/GP should be together etc etc...

Maybe she wants to give the people what they want - give them a go and hope things fall apart as the Ivory Tower meets the real world political machinations.

It should be hard to govern at least one member shy of a true coalition. And if the economy turns (thanks to Trump, thanks to a softer economy just because of mean reversion, etc) then all the better.

Risky, but if she is playing the long game could be good for her.

Which sucks because I would prefer for her to resign and have a new leader.
I've gotta have more cow bell! -Bruce Dickinson

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #37 on: May 30, 2017, 11:43:16 am »
First, Speaker can vote in the event of a tie, so no, the Greens and NDP do have a majority.

Second, Greens made it abundantly clear that there will be an electoral reform.  The disaccord was that Horgan wanted to have a referendum on it first and Weaver wanted to enforce it and then after two elections have a referendum to see if people want to keep it. 

If the NDP vote yes today on the agreement, we will hear the details but given that Weaver was adamant about electoral reform as a condition of working together, I think it's safe to say that Liberals rejected the idea and the NDP agreed, even if the details of how it will be implemented remains to be seem.

The Liberals are the biggest benefactors of FPTP in BC where they constantly get more percentage of the seats than their popular vote.

I don't believe for a minute that CC would sit back for strategic reasons and allow this agreement to go on knowing that our electoral system is the biggest strength for her party. 

More likely, she knew that Weaver is not going to compromise on the issue and her party's days of enjoying majority seats without majority votes are over either way, and she didn't want to be the one providing a helping hand in getting it done.

She could die a slow painful death or just pull the trigger.  She chose wisely.

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #38 on: May 30, 2017, 01:23:14 pm »
I just read this on CBC:

Quote
Political scientist Hamish Telford said Clark must either concede defeat or be defeated in the legislature. He expects she will choose a vote over a speedy concession.

With just a single seat separating the NDP and Greens from the Liberals, analysts say it would take just one New Democrat or Green to miss a ferry or be unexpectedly delayed and Clark's Liberals
could survive a confidence vote.

This is by far the most exciting election I've experienced in my adult life. 

Offline msj

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #39 on: May 30, 2017, 02:59:51 pm »
It is not going to be easy to push through legislation unless a Liberal agrees to be speaker - Sam Sullivan or Linda Reid perhaps?

Even then they will have to be monitoring bathroom breaks, sickness etc...

It would not be easy for the LP/GP to do it with 46 members so it is going to be hard for the NDP/GP to do it with 44.

As for PR - this could become the key issue leading to the fall of a minority government and a new election - but when and who will benefit from this remains to be seen.
I've gotta have more cow bell! -Bruce Dickinson

Offline jmt18325

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #40 on: May 30, 2017, 05:58:36 pm »
So Clark is going to meet the Legislature, and test confidence.  I think this is a smart move that may just work in her favour.

Offline BC_cheque

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #41 on: May 30, 2017, 06:53:51 pm »
Clark even said in her speech today that she'll likely lose.  She's just stalling to shred and delete.

Offline jmt18325

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #42 on: May 31, 2017, 12:44:52 pm »
Clark even said in her speech today that she'll likely lose.  She's just stalling to shred and delete.

She'll likely lose - but it's a long way from where we are to the day of the vote.  She could theoretically stall until the fall if she wanted.

Offline wilber

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #43 on: May 31, 2017, 07:35:54 pm »
She said June, likely earlier than later.

Offline jmt18325

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Re: BC provincial election
« Reply #44 on: May 31, 2017, 08:51:17 pm »
She said June, likely earlier than later.

I know - I was just taking it to theoretical extremes.